March 2024 Newsletter

Real Estate Market Report

GTA January Stats and 2024 Market in review

Home sales were up in January 2024 in comparison to January 2023. This annual increase came as some homebuyers started to benefit from lower borrowing costs associated with fixed rate mortgage products. New listings were also up year-over-year but by a lesser annual rate compared to sales. The resulting tighter market conditions when compared to the same period a year earlier, potentially points toward renewed price growth as we move into the spring market.

“Once the Bank of Canada actually starts cutting its policy rate, likely in the second half of 2024, expect home sales to pick up even further. There will be more competition between buyers in 2024 as demand picks up and the supply of listings remains constrained. The end result will be upward pressure on selling prices over the next two years,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite in January 2024 was down by less than one per cent year-over-year in January. The average selling price was down by one per cent year-over-year to $1,026,703. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price also trended lower.

At the moment, the real estate market is precariously balanced between buyer demands and seller supply. But the question remains, “For how long?” A lot is going to depend on what happens to interest rates. If inflation continues to hold steady, then most experts agree we will see declines in the interest rate over the course of 2024. The pundits disagree, however, on the amount that interest rates will drop, along with the predicted timeline. 
There’s a general sense that buyers have been sitting on the sidelines due to high borrowing costs which greatly dampens their buying power. For the market to pick up, we need first-time and move-up buyers to have renewed confidence that they can take on increased debt loads and manage monthly carrying costs. Even a slight decrease in mortgage interest rates could signal to buyers that it is safe to return to the market. Their renewed interest could very well upset the current balance and plunge us back into a strong seller’s market.  
If you are a home seller: Home sale prices may rebound as buyer demands increase faster than seller supply can satisfy. There are already news stories of properties receiving dozens of offers as buyers compete for the few desirable properties on the market. While I don’t think these extreme examples should set seller expectations, the anticipated decrease in mortgage interest rates spells very good news ahead. 
If you are a home buyer: Time is of the essence! As interest rates decrease, buyer demand will increase, and this means there is bound to be competition, bidding wars, and over-asking sales prices on the horizon. Right now there are still (relative) bargains to be found, especially in the condo market. “Days on market” for condo listings is up, and buyers have more negotiating power now than they are likely to have in the near future. Small-time investors are selling off investment properties because soaring interest rates no longer make these properties cash flow positive. Reach out if you’d like to hear more!

Here are real estate articles I have curated for your reading pleasure
 

• I am such an infographic geek! Here are my two favourite sites for Toronto and area real estate statistics:
  https://www.mortgagesandbox.com/toronto-real-estate-forecast
  https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market
• Homes under $1M get a ton of buyer attention. Here’s proof: https://www.cp24.com/mobile/news/multiple-offers-mounting-for-houses-under-1-million-in-toronto-real-estate-agents-1.6785771
• In the continuing battle against clutter: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/declutter-your-home-with-these-40-helpful-hacks/ss-BB1iRjLZ